Sure, if it's not a scam and the site stays alive for at least 50 days. But the good news is your £100 is only at risk for 13 days.

Before I go into details and method, let me say one thing.

DO NOT INVEST TIME, EFFORT OR MONEY INTO SOMETHING YOU CAN'T AFFORD!

^^^^^ read it again ^^^^^

IF you can't afford to lose £100, quit now.

^^^^^ read that again too ^^^^^

Okay if you've read this far, you can afford to lose £100. Now that's over with, let me tell you what I've found.

For some time now, I have been doing two things. One is kicking myself over losing a Bitcoin wallet I had in 2010. Long story for another day. The other is looking into how to get back on the train.

Let me cut to the chase.

There is a HYIP site currently claiming to be doing 8%/day. Your minimum investment is ~£44 (0.005BTC at time of writing).

At .005BTC and earning 8% a day, you're earning 0.000104 BTC/day interest, back into your wallet. So in just 13 days you'd get your ROI

But that's not the interesting part. I did a quick math on it. They don't do cumulative - BUT you can manually do it.

Method:

1. Invest 0.013BTC (~£100)

2. Accumulate (in your wallet) .000104 BTC/day interest for 13 days

3. Withdraw 0.013BTC (Your ROI)

.   (or withdraw it daily for 13 days.)

.

.

.

4. You now have .013 BTC in your account, and .013BTC back in your pocket.

5. This is where the fun starts, because your risk is now ZERO.

6. Every 5 days or less*, your interest wallet will have accumulated > 0.005 (their minimum buy in)

7. So, reinvest it - i.e. do manual compounding

8. Keep reinvesting every time your accrued interest exceeds 0.005 BTC

   (* because you're doing cumulative, within a couple of weeks this will be every 2 days)

9. Do this until day 49

On days 50+, since you now have ~0.167 in your fund, this earns you ~0.13/day (£100!)

10. Stop reinvesting and see how long you can keep withdrawing 0.013BTC/Day for

Is it a scam? No idea. Do your own due diligence. These sites pop up frequently. Some of them last for months others fold within weeks. Anyway, I've invested £100 to find out. Whether you decide to try it and whether you decide to risk £44 or £44,000, is entirely up to you

Update: With apologies for my scepticism to the HYIP's operators, I'm reducing my scepticism level by 40% (I'm sure they've had worse sceptics, at least I've had the balls to put some dough in) :)

Day 1: Received 0.00104 and successfully withdrew it - more info tomorrow

Day 2: Still paying out. 2 down 11 to go for roi, total 16% withdrawn

It seems they pay out every 24hrs from your deposit - I started 15:40pm on 1st and they've paid out at 15:40 on 2nd and 3rd.

Day 3: 8% received, total 24% withdrawn

Day 4: Another 8% generated at 15:40. Withdrew at 15:52 and it appeared again instantly on the site's live list of withdawals as well as the blockchain.

19:00 day 4, transaction is still on the blockchain 0/6 confirmations. Very slow today, first 3 days were all confirmed within ~half hour. 20:00, 4/6. 21:00, finally came through.

Day 5: 15:40 Another 8% successfully recovered. Again it's appeared on their realtime stats and the blockchain so I'm confident it'll go through.

Day 6: 16:25 An interesting development. Tried to withdraw my 0.00104 but it's sitting in my "withdrawal history" queue and hasn't appeared on the blockchain. Their live withdrawals updates seem to have stopped around 13:35 too so I'm guessing no-one has been paid out since that time. Looks like the journey might be over. I'll check again after a few hours and see if there's any development. Oh well, if it's gone even the 5 days I got back is worth around £50 in fiat so if I were to sell it I'd only have lost £50 on the experiment. 19:00 still no movement on the site or blockchain. It's looking more likely by the minute that they've scarpered with everyone's money. I sincerely hope no-one lost too badly. They lasted 15 days only, so losers would be basically everyone who joined later than day 2. So, looks like the ones paying big interest of 8-10% a day are very short term, 1 or 2 week efforts - in and out quick with whatever they can. To even ROI you'd need to be in from day 1 and withdraw daily.

In case anyone is wondering hyip crypto doesn't really hold the traditional meaning for ROI. In this case it stands for Return OF investment not return ON investment. In other words in hyip if you're lucky enough to ROI, all that's happened is you've got your money back. To get a return ON investment the scheme would need to stay alive for long enough for you to withdraw some profit after you've had your R "Of" I

Day 9: Site still active. Still allowing me to request withdrawal but not sending it. Live transactions appear to have come back (they were replaced with static & fake ones on day 6). Suspect these bastards are still taking people in and paying them out, only stopping payments to people who have already taken out 40-50% of their investment. Clever idea, because it creates doubt and if there are any internet fora they will be full of people yelling "scam" alongside people yelling "No, I got paid". Means they can string it out a bit longer before they finally exit.

For my ROI:-

Pessimometer: 110%

Optimometer:  -10% :)

An interesting development. I am having some hard LOL at the irony of the site I fully expected to be a quick exit is (was, see above) still working and the one I was sure I could get at least a month or three out of (Hexabot) appears to have died. The optimist in me is desperately willing the site to come back to life, while my inner pessimist is fairly sure "Peter" is on a beach in the Bahamas by now.

Now that I think about it, the two schemes are very similar. In their structure (both brand new UK registered companies with a £1 equity and with "Offices" in London and only 1 significant stakeholder). And with Hexabot you could ROI in 4 weeks with compounding at ~23%/week. If you withdrew it all you'd have doubled your money. With Mega there's no compounding. At 8% your roi is only 13 days but to truly double your money, because your deposits are locked for 100 days, you'd need to ROI twice - 26 days. So Mega's 8%/day with no compounding for 26 days, works out at nearly the same as Hexa's 23%/week 28 days with compounding.

Perhaps all these sites are working on a similar timetable. ~2 months to ramp up then *poof*. Gone. In other words, and this is a common thread with HYIP, if you get in early enough you can easily double your money but if you're late to the party and don't ROI soon enough, you're fucked, and if you do ROI but don't double your money you're just unlucky. Firing everything into a spreadsheet and working out what you'll be worth if you carried on compounding for months, is beyond ambitious.

I also log in and keep a close eye on their live withdrawals as often as I can. They're very transparent and do seem to be realtime, you can follow them on the blockchain also. I don't see any whales moving big cash out daily, it all seems to be people like me sticking a toe in the water and pulling out their 8% daily to see if it works. If a whale starts moving cash out will also be a warning signal, because if they've hooked a whale it could accelerate their exit strategy.

--------

Some have suggested I should be compounding from day 1 and pump the sucker up as fast as possible. Here's why I'm not doing that.

With £100 in, you're only making 0.00104 BTC/day. Their minimum investment is 0.005. So you'd have to wait 5 days, then reinvest. Then you'd have to wait another 4 days to reinvest the profit from that, 3 days to reinvest the profit from that, etc etc. By day 25 it's generating > 0.005/day so you could reinvest daily. By day 35 it's generating ~£100 daily which you could stop reinvesting and start withdrawing your £100/day. This would be a very smart thing to do if you were fairly sure the site would last for more than 35 days - you could keep taking out £100 a day until it collapses. However, if it collapses ANY time during those 35 days your initial £100 is lost.

That's why I think the strategy is sound, of getting your £100 back @ ~£8/day for the first 13 days THEN pumping it (compounding) until it's generating £100/day.

To be honest if I had £500 to risk, I'd have tried it with that. With a £500 initial investment it's generating > 0.005 BTC/day from day 1 so you could compound daily - but even at that rate it would still take 33 days before it was generating £500/day - so you're basically betting on the site lasting at least another 34 days.

Another way if you had £500 to risk would be to compound but only for 11 days by which time it would be generating £100/day. Then pull £100 a day for as long as you can. 16 days to get your money back is far less risky.

It's worth noting that they're still advertising heavily, you see them everywhere, Moon etc... which means they likely haven't reached critical mass yet. If they stop advertising will be the first sign that they're getting ready to pull the plug. The site's only 14 days old so there could still be ~6 weeks of life in it if it bugs out at the 2 month mark like hexabot seems to have. Still a chance you could at least double your money. Final update for today (technically Wednesday 6th but these are still Tuesday 5th's updates). I don't see their ads on Moon etc any more. In itself doesn't mean much but as mentioned above, could be a sign.

I've had a few people PM me asking how people can even get sucked into sites like this with ridiculous payouts, when fiat interest rates don't even come close on a yearly basis as these sites claim on a daily basis. It's really very simple. It's NOT fiat we're dealing with, it's crypto. And if you've been watching crypto for even a short length of time you can see that it's a place where huge profits can be made. Hell, if you bought BTC a short while ago with fiat and cashed out today, it could have easily doubled or more. The crypto market is extremely volatile at the moment it's not unusual to see a 20% swing in either direction in a matter of hours or days. And if you know anything about trading you'd know it makes zero difference whether something is falling or rising as long as it's moving and you're betting on the right direction. Even if you bet wrong you might not have to wait long for it to bounce back to your purchase price and not make a loss. In other words, in crypto you could make 20% in a matter of minutes or hours never mind months. So it's absolutely NOT a stretch of the imagination to believe that a well programmed and moderately cautious bot could make 20% in a month. In other words no, you don't have to be stupid to get caught up in it.

First time I stuck a toe in the water with eToro, I had £100 in there. I didn't know what I was doing. eventually I decided the only way to learn was by doing. I bought a stock that was just on the rise from a dip. 30 minutes later I sold it for £102. 2% in 30 minutes. It is ABSOLUTELY POSSIBLE and even conservative, to think you can make 20%/month, I am certain of it.

Don't be a sheep and listen to what the government, the rich, the elite, the traders want you to think - that "inflation" is 3% (in the same breath they tell you that utilities such as electricity have risen 11%), a Wonga loan at 1396%pa is totally fair, and you have to be an expert to make money trading. It's all bullshit.

That said:-

With great risk come great rewards. Also great regrets if it blows up in your face. I'll stick with my 13 day ROI plan then see how it goes. :)

Actually it's no longer an ROI plan, it's evolved into research on how these sites operate and how they're linked. I may take these disjointed ramblings and turn them into a proper set of blog posts.

Before you go, there's a faucet site that pays daily. No hourly visits and clicking, no games. All you need to do is sign up. Costs ZERO I promise. Still pennies like all faucets but if you sign up, forget about it, and come back 6 months later it will have been filling from the faucet daily all that time. Maybe at least a few beers worth. Hey it's free, doesn't come cheaper or more risk free than that!

Yes it's a referral link above. For some reason if you have referrals under you then you get a little extra every day. I've no idea why because like I said, your referrals don't need to spend anything or even use the site. But if they want to give us extra % from faucet every day for doing nothing it's alright with me.

Anyway, back to megabitchain:

I've just noticed I made a rookie mistake when I pasted a megabitchain banner below. I left my "referrer" ID in there. It was never my intention to recruit (I've never recruited anyone to a ponzi/pyramid/mlm, ever) and thankfully I have no referrals signed up under my name, but anyway it's gone now so simply go to Megabitchain to have a nosy.

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Random thought of the day...

I'm fascinated by Martingale. Not to the extent I'd ever be stupid enough to try it IRL but the geek in me wants to know more about statistics...

Martingale is a thing of beauty. It's flawless. It's the only proveable way of gambling and having 100%* chance of winning, afaik. It does have two major caveats of course - that if you reach the house's upper betting limit you're screwed and if you run out of funds you're screwed. Those are, well, pretty serious caveats because even to make a dollar you could lose a million which is why only stupid people try it IRL. It's the old grain of rice on a chessboard thing. Things get out of hand real fast when you're doubling.

Consider the coin toss. The probability of a head or a tail remains fixed regardless of how many times you toss. 50/50. But the odds. Man, the odds are where it gets interesting. You see if you toss a coin 1000 times, "the universe" for want of a better description wants you to throw 500 heads and 500 tails. Perfect balance from a 50/50 probability. Of curse it doesn't work like that. You might get 550 heads and 450 tails. Or vice versa. But the ODDS of it being out of balance diminish the more out of balance it gets. If you've already thrown 999 heads, for example, which in itself is near impossible odds - the odds of your 1000th toss being also a head are also near impossible despite the probability still being 50/50.

I'm sure a professional statistician has already done it but I'd love to plot a graph of probability. Fairly sure it will be a bell curve with the probability of 1000 heads being zero (more accurately, negligible) at one end, and 1000 tails being zero at the other - 500 being the center point.

Every time you flip a consecutive head, the odds of the next toss being a head diminish. At which point do the odds of getting a tail tip significantly in your favour? after 10 consecutive heads? 20? 100?

More on this later because there's a site where you can experiment with Martingale for free, playing with faucet satoshi. Freebitco.in. Yes that's a "referral" link, but I have no moral issues referring people to sites that are free. I've been fiddling with it whenever I want to amuse myself for a half hour. Made it to 300k satoshi once but got careless (impatient) and lost it to a 17-loss losing streak.

Oh, btw you CAN pay money into freebitco.in if you really want to. PLEASE DON'T. I do it ONLY when I build up some free satoshi from the faucet and I absolutely urge you to do the same if you try the site. I'm not one of those people who tell you "well you know the risks, so try if you want" (passive aggressive manipulation in the hopes they'll get some referral bonus). Despite me not taking my own advice with Hexabot (that's my prerogative), my advice to ANYONE looking at HYIP or gambling is DON'T. Period. Unless you have the discipline to never, ever risk more than you can afford to lose.

*When I say 100% above I mean as close as is negligible to 100%. Of course I know that the odds of tossing another head after even a million consecutive heads, are not zero.